Global Climate Scenario: Abruptly Changing Climates

Not all changes in the climate are gradual. There is the possibility of greater changes in climate than current scenarios and models project. The long record of climate found in ice cores, tree rings, and other natural records show that 's climate patterns have undergone rapid shifts from one stable state to another within as short a period as a decade. The occurrence of abrupt changes in climate becomes increasingly likely as the human disturbance of the climate system grows. Such changes can occur so rapidly that they would challenge the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. Examples of such changes are abrupt shifts in drought frequency and duration. Ancient climate records suggest that in the United States, the may be at greatest risk for this kind of change, but that other regions including the Midwest and Great Plains have also had these kinds of abrupt shifts in the past and could experience them again in the future.

Rapid ice sheet collapse with related sea-level rise is another type of abrupt change that is not well understood or modeled and that poses a risk for the future. Recent observations show that melting on the surface of an ice sheet produces water that flows down through large cracks that create conduits through the ice to the base of the ice sheet where it lubricates ice previously frozen to the rock below. Further, the interaction with warm ocean water, where ice meets the sea, can lead to sudden losses in ice mass and accompanying rapid global sea-level rise. Observations indicate that ice loss has increased dramatically over the last decade, though scientists are not yet confident that they can project how the ice sheets will respond in the future.

There are also concerns regarding the potential for abrupt release of methane from thawing of frozen soils, from the sea floor, and from wetlands in the an abrupt release of methane is very unlikely to occur within 100 years, it is very likely that warming will accelerate the pace of chronic methane emissions from these sources, potentially increasing the rate of global temperature rise.

A third major area of concern regarding possible abrupt change involves the operation of the ocean currents that transport vast quantities of heat around the globe. One branch of the ocean circulation is in the North Atlantic. In this region, warm water flows northward from the tropics to the North Atlantic in the upper layer of the ocean, while cold water flows back from the North Atlantic to the tropics in the ocean's deep layers, creating a “conveyor belt” for heat. Changes in this circulation have profound impacts on the global climate system, from changes in African and Indian monsoon rainfall, to atmospheric circulation relevant to hurricanes, to changes in climate over North America and Western Europe.

Recent findings indicate that it is very likely that the strength of this North Atlantic circulation will decrease over the course of this century in response to increasing . This is expected because warming increases the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and the resulting runoff of freshwater to the sea. This additional water is virtually salt-free, which makes it less dense than sea water. Increased precipitation also contributes fresh, less dense water to the ocean. As a result, less surface water is dense enough to sink, thereby reducing the conveyor belt's transport of heat. The best estimate is that the strength of this circulation will decrease 25 to 30 percent in this century, leading to a reduction in heat to the North Atlantic. It is considered very unlikely that this circulation would collapse entirely during the next 100 years or so, though it cannot be ruled out. While very unlikely, the potential consequences of such an abrupt event would be severe. Impacts would likely include sea-level rise around the North Atlantic of up to 2.5 feet (in addition to the rise expected from thermal expansion and melting glaciers and ice sheets), changes in atmospheric circulation conditions that influence hurricane activity, a southward shift of tropical rainfall belts with resulting agricultural impacts, and disruptions to marine ecosystems.