Global Climate Scenarios: Emissions

Some continued warming of the planet is projected over the next few decades due to past emissions. Choices made now will influence the amount of future warming. Lower levels of heat-trapping emissions will yield less future warming, while higher levels will result in more warming, and more severe impacts on society and the natural world.

Global temperatures are projected to continue to rise over this century; by how much and for how long depends on a number of factors, including the amount of heat-trapping gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions.

Emissions scenarios

The IPCC developed a set of scenarios in a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). These have been extensively used to explore the potential for future climate change. None of these scenarios, not even the one called “lower”, includes implementation of policies to limit climate change or to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases. Rather, differences among these scenarios are due to different assumptions about changes in population, rate of adoption of new technologies, , and other factors.

The IPCC emission scenarios also do not encompass the full range of possible futures: emissions can change less than those scenarios imply, or they can change more. Recent carbon dioxide emissions developed by the IPCC82 (see figure below). Whether this will continue is uncertain.

There are also lower possible emissions paths than those put forth by the IPCC. The Framework Convention on Climate Change, to which the United States and 191 other countries are signatories, calls for stabilizing concentrations of gases in the atmosphere at a level that would avoid dangerous human interference with the climate system. What exactly constitutes such interference is subject to interpretation.

A variety of studies suggest that a further 2°F increase (relative to the 1980-1999 period) would lead to severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts. To have a good chance (but not a guarantee) of avoiding temperatures above those levels, it has been estimated that atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would need to stabilize in the long term at around today's levels.

Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would reduce warming over this century and beyond. Implementing sizable and sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change, and would be more effective than reductions of the same size initiated later. Reducing emissions of some shorter-lived greenhouse gases, such as , and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce the warming influence within weeks to decades.

The graphs below show emissions scenarios and resulting carbon dioxide concentrations for three IPCC scenarios and one stabilization scenario.

Scenarios of Future Carbon Dioxide
Global Emissions and Concentrations

Global Emissions and Concentrations
The graphs show recent and projected global emissions of carbon dioxide in gigatons of carbon, on the left, and atmospheric concentrations on the right under five emissions scenarios. The top three in the key are IPCC scenarios that assume no explicit climate policies (these are used in model projections that appear throughout This Series). The bottom line is a “stabilization scenario,” designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at 450 parts per million. The inset expanded below these charts shows emissions for 1990-2010 under the three IPCC scenarios along with actual emissions to 2007 (in black).

The stabilization scenario is aimed at stabilizing the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at roughly 450 parts per million (ppm); this is 70 ppm above the 2008 concentration of 385 ppm. Resulting changes depend on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and particles and the climate's sensitivity to those concentrations. Of those shown on above, only the 450 ppm stabilization target has the potential to keep the global temperature rise at or below about 3.5°F from pre-industrial levels and 2°F above the current average temperature, a level beyond which many concerns have been raised about dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Scenarios that stabilize carbon dioxide below 450 ppm (not shown in the figure) offer an increased chance of avoiding dangerous climate change.

Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas of concern. Concentrations of other heat-trapping gases like methane and nitrous oxide and particles like soot will also have to be stabilized at low enough levels to prevent global temperatures from rising higher than the level mentioned above. When these other gases are added, including the offsetting cooling effects of sulfate aerosol particles, analyses suggest that stabilizing concentrations around 400 parts per million of “equivalent carbon dioxide” would yield about an 80 percent chance of avoiding exceeding the 2°F above present temperature threshold. This would be true even if concentrations temporarily peaked as high as 475 parts per million and then stabilized at 400 parts per million roughly a century later. Reductions in sulfate aerosol particles would necessitate lower equivalent carbon dioxide targets.