Global Climate Scenarios: Temperatures, Precipitation and Sea Levels

Rising global

All climate models project that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases will cause further warming in the future. Based on scenarios that do not assume explicit climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global average temperature is projected to rise by 2 to 11.5°F by the end of this century (relative to the 1980-1999 time period). Whether the actual warming in 2100 will be closer to the low or the high end of this range depends primarily on two factors: first, the future level of emissions of heat-trapping gases, and second, how sensitive climate is to past and future been explored using a range of different emissions scenarios, and a variety of climate models that encompass the known range of climate sensitivity.

Changing precipitation patterns

Projections of changes in precipitation largely follow recently observed patterns of change, with overall increases in the global average but substantial shifts in where and how precipitation falls.

Generally, higher latitudes are projected to receive more precipitation, while the dry belt that lies just outside the tropics expands further poleward, and also receives less rain. Increases in tropical precipitation are projected during rainy seasons (such as monsoons), and especially over the tropical Pacific. Certain regions, including the U.S. West (especially the Southwest) and the Mediterranean, are expected to become drier. The widespread trend toward more heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense. More precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than .

Currently rare extreme events are becoming more common

In a warmer future climate, models project there will be an increased risk of more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting heat waves. The European heat wave of 2003 is an example of the type of extreme heat event that is likely to become much more common. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, by the 2040s more than half of European summers will be hotter than the summer of 2003, and by the end of this century, a summer as hot as that of 2003 will be considered unusually cool.

Increased extremes of summer dryness and wetness are projected for much of the globe, meaning a generally greater risk of droughts and . This has already been observed and is projected to continue. In a warmer world, precipitation tends to be concentrated into heavier events, with longer dry periods in between.

Models project a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms overall outside the tropics, with more extreme wind events and higher ocean waves in a number of regions in association with those toward the poles in both hemispheres.

Changes in are difficult to project because there are countervailing forces. Higher ocean temperatures lead to stronger storms with higher wind speeds and more rainfall. But changes in wind speed and direction with height are also projected to increase in some regions, and this tends to work against storm formation and growth. It currently appears that stronger, more rain-producing tropical storms and hurricanes are generally more likely, though more research is required on these issues. More discussion of Atlantic hurricanes, which most affect the United States, appears in the National Climate Change section.

Global Average Temperature: 1900 to 2100
Global Increase in Heavy Precipitation 1900 to 2100

Global Average Temperature and Precipitation Change

Observed and projected changes in the global average temperature under three IPCC no-policy emissions scenarios. The shaded areas show the likely ranges while the lines show the central projections from a set of climate models. A wider range of model types shows outcomes from 2 to 11.5ºF. Changes are relative to the 1960-1979 average.

Simulated and projected changes in the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 5 percent of daily events. The shaded areas show the likely ranges while the lines show the central projections from a set of climate models. Changes are relative to the 1960-1979 average.

Sea level will continue to rise

Projecting future sea-level rise presents special challenges. Scientists have a well-developed understanding of the contributions of thermal expansion and melting glaciers to sea-level rise, so the models used to project sea-level rise include these processes. However, the contributions to past and future sea-level rise from ice sheets are less well understood. Recent observations of the polar ice sheets show that a number of complex processes control the movement of ice to the sea, and thus affect the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. Some of these processes are already producing substantial loss of ice mass. Because these processes are not well understood it is difficult to predict their future contributions to sea-level rise.

Because of this uncertainty, the 2007 assessment by the IPCC could not quantify the contributions to sea-level rise due to changes in ice sheet dynamics, and thus projected a rise of the world's oceans from 8 inches to 2 feet by the end of this century.

More recent research has attempted to quantify the potential contribution to sea-level rise from the accelerated flow of ice sheets to the sea or to estimate future sea level based on its observed relationship to temperature. The resulting estimates exceed those of the IPCC, and the average estimates under higher emissions scenarios are for sea-level rise between 3 and 4 feet by the end of this century. An important question that is often asked is, what is the upper bound of sea-level rise expected over this century? Few analyses have focused on this question. There is some evidence to suggest that it would be virtually impossible to have a rise of sea level higher than about 6.5 feet by the end of this century.

The changes in sea level experienced at any particular location along the coast depend not only on the increase in the global average sea level, but also on changes in regional currents and winds, proximity to the mass of melting ice sheets, and on the vertical movements of the land due to geological particular location depend on the amount of sea-level rise relative to the adjoining land. Although some parts of the U.S. coast are undergoing uplift (rising), most shorelines are subsiding (sinking) to various degrees – from a few inches to over 2 feet per century.